Climate change impact in Nepal and its society

Prof. Robert R. Gillies (Director, Utah Climate Center, Utah State University) 

Abstract
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A short introduction of the Utah Climate Center will be followed by a recent climate research for Nepal.  

Western Nepal has experienced consecutive and worsened winter drought conditions since 2000 culminating in a severe drought episode during 2008-2009. In this study, winter droughts in western Nepal were analyzed using respectively instumental records and a paleoclimatic drought index, and how the society can cope with the projected drought through changing practices in livestock and agriculture. Althought decadal-scale drought conditions were found to be recurrent in the paleoclimate record, the severity of the recent decadal drought clearly stands out and is suggestive of potential anthropogenic influences in the recent decades. Meteorological diagnosis revealed that (1) winter drought in western Nepal is linked to the Arctic Oscillation and its decadal variability, and that (2) the persistent warming of the Indian Ocean likely contributes to the suppression of rainfall. It is therefore conceivable that the recent spells of decadal drought in Nepal drought are symptomatic of both natural variability and anthropogenic influences, componded by late monsoons during the dry phase of the Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (QDO) in Nepal¡¦s precipitation regime. Methods to help the society cope with such impending drought situation are discussed.